Driver

Definition

Major effects

Key interactions

Dominant policy tendency

Population growth

Increase in human population

Increases demand for food, energy, materials

Effects mediated by levels of consumption, resource efficiency, technology

Direct policies relatively rare; can be either direction (one-child policy vs. child bonus payments)

Economic growth

Increase in GDP

Usually increases resource and energy use

Stimulated by population growth, consumption, technology, trade

Encourage further growth

Technology

Technological advances; new ways of doing things become possible

Can increase resource efficiency (e.g. LED lights) or intensify environmental damage (e.g. mechanical forest harvesters)

Affects economic growth, consumption, trade and their impacts

Incentives for advancing particular kinds of technology depend on policy priorities

Consumption

Increase in per capita resource use (food, water, energy, materials)

Increases resource extraction, agricultural production, industrial processing, energy use

Generally increases with higher GDP per capita

Most encourage further consumption; some efficiency measures

Urbanization

Increased concentration of human population in cities and towns; expansion of urban areas

Can increase consumption through diet and lifestyle shifts; can also encourage resource efficiency (e.g. mass transit)

Affects patterns of consumption and interaction with technology

Economic and social policies incentivize living in urban or rural areas; zoning and urban planning affect land use

Trade/ globalization

Increased international trade; long distances between places where resources originate and their products are consumed

Increases transportation of goods; can obscure signals of environmental degradation; impacts of production occur far from where demand originates

Interacts with economic growth, consumption, technology; presents governance challenges

Trade rules encourage particular forms of trade

Conflict

Increase in armed conflict and/ or social instability

Can intensify competition and resource extraction; interferes with implementation of rules; reduces security of land tenure

Can be influenced by inequality, climate stress, weak governance

Seek to reduce conflict

Weak Governance

Absence of political accountability, due process, legal institutions

Difficult to enforce resource access rules or implement long-term management plans

May co-occur with conflict

Seek to reduce failure